Points Leagues 2B Set to Outperform ADP

This article will examine a few eligible second basemen for the 2022 MLB season that are being selected later than their Steamer projections suggest they should in points leagues and H2H points formats. RotoBaller’s fantasy baseball points analyst Antonio Losada will be offering a few picks for both potential overperformers (sleepers) and shortcomers (busts) when it comes to the following baseball season at each of the six (C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF ) rosterable positions through the remainder of the offseason gearing up to training camps and the preseason. ADP figures come from point-format contests over NFBC.

In general, points leagues and H2H points formats are extremely underserved by the fantasy baseball community and fantasy baseball outlets. But in case you weren’t aware, here at RotoBaller we really take pride in and specialize in points leagues. All through the preseason and MLB season, we’ll be publishing rankings, tools, and analysis articles all geared for fantasy baseball points and H2H points leagues.

Before we get to the players themselves, let’s quickly review points leagues and how they are different than other formats. Typically, points leagues have different league settings and scoring formats than other fantasy baseball leagues. Different MLB stats and categories are assigned different point values, and those can vary by individual league settings. Those different point buckets are then added up over the course of a scoring period or season. In many cases, hitters who walk more and strike out less are preferred for points leagues. Also, many league formats tend to give more weight to pitchers than normal as they can easily accrue points through categories like Innings Pitched. Without further ado, let’s get it popping!

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ADP: 163.4 – OVR Rk: 59 – POS Rk: 7

I’m not joking: that ADP of 163+ means that, on a pure per-position ADP rank, Kike Hernandez is getting off draft boards as the 14th-highest-picked second baseman this offseason. In case you haven’t peeped at the line above, Hernandez is projected to a seventh-best finish among players at the 2B position. No seriously. I’m not making it up, blame Steamer if you don’t believe it. I’m just stating facts here so there’s that. Kike, by the way, is one of only seven players with 2B as their main position projected to get 660+ PA by the system. No glitch right there, not a thing to hate.

Hernandez has been around for more than a while, and he did it for the BoSox in 2021 for the first time in his career after spending the prior six campaigns playing for the Dodgers. It’s been a large-enough tenure to consider Kike’s .275 BABIP a thing of his own, like, he’s not unlucky but just what he is. Does that demolish his upside of him? Nope, not for me at least. The AVG sucks a bit (.238 in the last five seasons, .250 last year alone) but that only matters for those pesky cat-geared fantasy GMs. For us point truthers? Not so much. The .786 OPS, though? Godsend value right there.

Steamer has eight second-basemen projected to an OPS of .785+ next season. Hernandez projects to finish seventh in ESPN’s points leagues. Make sense. Kike played 35 games exclusive at the 2B spot, and 78 in the outfield (CF); wings: dual-eligibility and goodies at an infield position from a guy that one way or another will feature daily on the Sox lineup–be it inside or outside the bag-delimited square. If you turn blue, you’re screwed; if you turn red, you’re hot as hell (now go check the charts above).

ADP: 106.9 – OVR Rk: 66 – POS Rk: 10

One in San Diego, a half-and-half between SD and his current place, and the last one in Seattle. That’s Ty’s three MLB campaigns to date, always on the move but always delivering the goods. France’s revolutionary in that he doesn’t know how to walk to first (7.1 BB% last year) but he also just learned how not to K, often posting a career-best 16.3% strikeout rate the last time we saw him play. Put both numbers together and voilathere’s the 0.43 BB/K that was good to have Ty as one of only six 2B-men with such a ratio while getting 600+ trips to the plate.

France isn’t a world-beater, I know. It is what it is. I have stole zero bases last year, which made it possible for Ty to close the season as one of only two (Jed Lowrie) 2B with more than 361 PA and not a single theft. That kills you in cat-leagues. In points ones? No, sir, so it’s time to celebrate! France can do it all over the infield (he barely qualified for the 2B eligibility next year, but here we are). He’s a 1B, mind you, so you know the power is there for the taking, and that’s why Steamer has him projected to get the sixth-most homers next season at 23.

Homers are cool in points leagues because they count for all of the H, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR categories, and that, obviously, we love. But this guy’s exploits don’t end there. The 158 total hits project to be the ninth-most for a 2B-eligible player, the 31+2+23 extra-base hits rank seventh-best, and the OBP is far from bad at a neat .344 over his projection of 652 PA, also top-eight marks. Last season’s progression: rising contact rates to close the year, cratering swing rates, a slight improvement on the Hard% front, and a constantly-on-the-rise OBP from the end of July to the final game of the season. Can’t complain.

Jean Segura, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 182.2 – OVR Rk: 72 – POS Rk: 12

Is there a more boring fantasy player/pick than Jean Segura? Probably not. Is there a safer, currently overlooked one more than Jean Segura? You bet there isn’t, I can guarantee that. Segura played one game (cup-o-coffee!) for the Angels all the way back in 2012, got moved to Milwaukee, and that’s where everything truly started for the man, the myth, the legend Jean-O. I’m not making this up: there has only been one Segura in the MLB since 1991 when José Segura–no relation–retired. Such a unique player is Jean!

Anyway, I’m here writing about Segura because 1) his plate discipline is sublime, 2) his BABIP has been above-average through all of this man’s career, and 3) he’s a lock to rack up numbers everywhere across his stat line. About that first point, Segura has posted back-to-back seasons with a 0.50+ BB/K ratio and five straight in which he never K’d more than 83 times; just once in his career he has struck out more than 100 (101) times, and that happened more than five years ago in 2016! About that second point, Segura’s a career .288 hitter. Best ever? Probably not. Good enough for me, manager of a points league team? Sure thing. The BABIP has floated the 31% in the past two years and the high walk rate paired with the low K% make Segura a perennial first-base molester.

Finally, about that third point: goodies in bunches. Of course, 2022 Safe is not going to be 2016 Safe, which means 2022 Safe is not going to steal 30+ bases anymore. Good for us, that’s not a no-no in point formats. Focus on those walks and the depressed strikeouts. Focus on the fantastic extra-base hits (44 last season and an even better projection of 48 as Stemer has it for next season). Segura is a nightmare to keep out of the bases, and that means he will put up stats on all fronts. Remember, we’re talking about points here, and there is one and the only thing about this type of format: points are always good, no matter where they come front. And Segura surely knows.

ADP: 230.1 – OVR Rk: 62 – POS Rk: 9

You’re not reading that wrong: 230 ADP for the ninth-best projection at the second base. It’s the world we live in, the year 2022 of our Lord. Perhaps the late-season slump is the reason for that bump-down in price, but that makes little to no sense at all if you ask me. Arraez’s power is definitely not his calling card, which sucks a bit because here in the point realm, we dig as many dingers as we can get. But other than that, the K% (99th percentile!) is sublime, as is the xBA (94th!) and… the Whiff% (100th, oh sweet baby Jesus!).

All things considered, Arraez’s xwOBA ranks in a good-not-great 61st percentile. But his numbers from him when it comes to reaching base are so insane that there is no way this guy should drop to the 230+ slot on draft day. And to think he’s yet to play ball at 25 years of age! If the BABIP is a lie and about to crater, we have yet to see happen (.355, .353, and finally .323 last year) but so far so awesome for Luisito, who has hit for an AVG of .316 as a pro in the MLB while slugging 44-40-37% in his three seasons in Minny to go with an astonishing plate discipline that has him averaging (sit tight) BB/K ratios of 1.24, 0.73, and 0.90 this past 2021 campaign.

Just for context, those ratio-marks ranked second, 27th, and fifth-best in the past three seasons among all position hitters in the 2019-21 span, and of course were the first, fifth, and second among players doing it mainly at the second base. Arraez is for real and he’s just freaking kicking his career off, folks. The projected HRs are super low at six, yes, but he’s expected to hit 35 other extra-base hits between his doubles and triples while posting a sky-high 0.90 BB/K ratio once more–do I need to mention that’s the best projection for a 2B-man and the third-beast league-wide (only topped by two dudes named Juan Soto and Alex Bergman)? oh oh

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