The 2022 awards season is quickly coming to an end. The 94th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 27, and they will award the year’s greatest movies. Some nominations came as quite a shock, while others were guaranteed locks. And of those nominees, a few are virtually guaranteed to win.
The GoldDerby website is great at predicting the outcome of the Oscars, as extensive research goes into their odds. Their Best Screenplay categories are a relatively close race, although only some movies are in very close contention for the award. Here are the odds going forward in both the Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay categories.
Best Original Screenplay
Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier – The Worst Person In The World (2021)
When it comes to Best Original Screenplay, the least likely winner is The Worst Person in the World. Released in its native Norway as Verdens verste menneske, The Worst Person in the World was written by collaborators Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier. Unfortunately, their odds of winning are extremely low.
In fact, GoldDerby doesn’t even list the movie under their Best Original Screenplay category, so unlikely it is to win. During the 2022 awards season, The Worst Person in the World has yet to win a single award for its screenplay.
Zach Baylin – King Richard (2021)
While undoubtedly one of the best biopics of 2021, king richard is unlikely to win Best Original Screenplay. The movie is mostly renowned for its acting, and Will Smith is looking like a lock for Best Actor. Its screenplay, on the other hand, is not as well regarded.
It was somewhat criticized for adhering to sports biopic tropes, and it has only earned seven nominations throughout the 2022 awards season. king richard will likely walk away with at least one award, but it won’t be for Best Original Screenplay.
Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up (2021)
Don’t Look Up is the dark horse of this awards season. While the Netflix comedy had some impactful quotes, the movie was not highly regarded and only has a 56% on Rotten Tomatoes. Its screenplay was also criticized, with many finding it too condescending, on-the-nose, and obnoxious.
Regardless, it has earned a nomination for Best Original Screenplay, although it is unlikely to win. While it is currently in third place in the odds, it is a distant third. While the movie was praised for its message, it is unlikely to walk away with any major Oscar this year, let alone Best Original Screenplay.
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (2021)
It’s a tight race for Best Original Screenplay, and Belfast is currently the close runner-up. A semi-autobiographical movie from writer-director Kenneth Branagh, Belfast is a major favorite at the 94th Academy Awards. The movie has earned 131 nominations and 32 wins this season.
It also won Best Screenplay at the Golden Globe Awards, which has significantly increased its odds of winning the Oscar. But as now, it is a close second behind the frontrunner and predicted winner.
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (2021)
The favorite for this year’s Best Original Screenplay award is Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza. It currently has 17/5 odds to win and is the top choice to win the major award. The movie has received 35 wins throughout the 2022 awards season, including Best Screenplay by the New York Film Critics Circle.
If it was to win, Licorice Pizza would prove Anderson’s first win for Best Original Screenplay. It is his fifth nomination in a Screenplay category, with the others being boogie nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Bloodand Inherent Vice.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe – Drive My Car (2021)
a japanese drama, Drive My Car is adapted from a short story Haruki Murakami’s collection Men Without Women. It is currently up for Best Adapted Screenplay, but according to GoldDerby, it is the least likely to win. This, despite the screenplay receiving numerous wins throughout the awards season, including Best Screenplay at the Cannes Film Festival.
It’s certainly one of the best international movies of 2021, but like the Norwegian The Worst Person In The Worldit is unlikely to take home a Screenplay award at the 94th Academy Awards.
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve & Eric Roth – Dune (2021)
While we still have questions for Part Two, dunes was a great standalone film that earned widespread acclaim. It is also one of the leading movies of the 94th Academy Awards, having earned ten nominations. However, almost all of these are (understandably) in the technical categories.
However, it has earned some “serious” nominations, and one of them is Best Adapted Screenplay. However, according to GoldDerby, it is highly unlikely to win and is barely above Drive My Car in the odds.
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter (2021)
Based on the novel of the same name from Elena Ferrante, The Lost Daughter was both written and directed by popular actress Maggie Gyllenhaal. This is actually Gyllenhaal’s debut feature as both a writer and director, and what a debut it was. The movie earned consistently high marks from critics and is universally hailed as one of the best movies of 2021.
Its screenplay has also garnered enormous praise, including the Golden Osella for Best Screenplay at the Venice International Film Festival. Both it and the second place entry are virtually neck-in-neck in terms of odds, with The Lost Daughter currently holding 5/19.
Sian Heder – CODA (2021)
Meaning “child of deaf adults,” CODA stars Emilia Jones as the headline CODA. The movie was adapted from a French comedy called The Belier Family. CODA has only earned four nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay, and that is one of the movie’s three Oscar nominations (the others being Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor).
Despite the lack of nominations, CODA is virtually tied with The Lost Daughter in joint second and third place in the odds. Whatever the case, both are highly unlikely to win, as there is one formidable favorite.
Jane Campion – The Power Of The Dog (2021)
When it comes to Best Adapted Screenplay, there is one heavy favorite, and that is Jane Campion. Mostly everyone, including GoldDerby, agrees that Campion will win for The Power of the Dog. Adapted from Thomas Savage’s novel of the same name, The Power of the Dog has been the massive frontrunner throughout the 2022 awards season.
To date, it has walked away with 210 wins and a further 265 nominations. It’s a clear favorite for Best Adapted Screenplay, with GoldDerby experts currently giving 10/3 odds.
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