BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 350
CURRENT ADP: ~386 overall
ANALYSIS: Duran torched Triple-A last year and wound up getting the call to make his MLB debut in mid-July. He went on to disappoint over 33 games in the majors, slashing .215/.241/.336 with two home runs. However, fantasy managers shouldn’t be discouraged by that small sample size. Duran has the ability to be a contributor in a number of stats for fantasy managers as soon as this year and if things all go right for him, he could be one of the biggest steals at the end of your draft.
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Duran spent the bulk of last year in the minors. Over 60 Triple-A games in 2021, he hit 16 home runs, absolutely shattering his home run pace in the minors in 2018 and 2019. That stretch at Triple-A last year was full confirmation that he had rounded out his game for both real -life and fantasy purposes. While Duran’s power breakout came late in his minor league career, his speed on the base paths was on display from the very start. He stole 24 bases in 2018, then snagged a whopping 46 bases in 2019. There was no question that Duran was running the base paths at an elite speed during his time with the Red Sox last year. His average sprint speed of 29.3 feet/second-ranked is in the 96th percentile. For comparison purposes, Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Myles Straw clocked in at the same exact speed and that duo combined for 55 stolen bases over 268 games in 2021.
If you’re going into the late rounds of your draft and you need a sure thing outfield starter, then Duran may not be as solid of a pick as someone like Jeff McNeil or Randal Grichuk, but if you’re looking for a late- round shoot-for-the-stars type of pick, Duran has that potential. He has the skill set to be a fantasy stud and he’s going to be hitting in a hitter-friendly ballpark amidst a strong Red Sox lineup. Additionally, keep in mind that he’s particularly enticing in rotisserie and head-to-head categories leagues where he could be a big difference-maker in stolen bases.
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