Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Buy lows, sell highs, and Davante Adams’ trade value

It’s comforting to know that as much as the NFL landscape changes, the questions for the Dynasty mailbag remain the same. Or at least in the same vein. Who should I trade for? Who should I trade away? Who is the next great “____”? What should I do with this aging superstar?

Sure, the names are different, and the answers can get pretty complicated. But there’s a common thread that connects this game, allowing us to watch the NFL world go absolutely bananas, and then being led back to the same questions once again.

All that being said, let’s start with one of the most common questions we get every offseason.

Favorite Buys and Sells

There are a couple of ways to answer this question. You could look for players who you expect to gain or lose value over the next five months, that’s my traditional method, or you can look at the consensus rankings, see who I disagree with, and then try to buy and sell those players. I’ll try to do a bit of both.

As far as players who could see their value balloon, I’d say any of the second-year quarterbacks who struggled last year are a good start. Trevor Lawrence seems like the most likely, especially if Jacksonville drafts a true No. 1 receiver. But Justin Fields could also see a bump if his team acquires one of his former teammates in the draft and he has a good camp. At the other positions, I could see Rashaad Penny, Devin Singletary, Rashod Bateman, and Irv Smith all getting a boost this summer.

As for the potential fallers, I’d think more about guys who could be hurt by the NFL Draft. That includes Singletary, which makes him a volatile asset. But also, Mitchell Trubisky and Marcus Mariota could get replaced, Alvin Kamara and Deshaun Watson could get longer suspensions than expected, and Elijah Moore could get unwelcome target competition.

Looking at it the other way, I am considerably higher than the FantasyPros Dynasty Consensus rankings on Lawrence, Josh Jacobs, Michael Carter, Marquise Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Brevin Jordan. I would buy all of those guys at their consensus ranking, or even slightly above. The guys I’m selling based on the general consensus are Trey Lance, Derek Carr, Antonio Gibson, Nick Chubb, Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth.

Just remember in these discussions, cost matters. No one is a universal sell or buy unless you’re talking about a veteran on a rebuilding roster.

Trading Davante Adams

Adams wasn’t the only elite receiver I got this question about. There were also some about Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill. Just for reference for those of you with one of them, I value Kupp the most, Adams at about 90% of Kupp, and Hill at about 75% of Kupp. The uncertainty that comes from the new situations of Adams and Hill is definitely weighing them down, and I’m slightly more worried about Tua Tagovailoa than Carr.

Let’s start with the current trade offer. I have Amon-Ra St. Brown and the 1.08 as about 33% more valuable than Adams in a vacuum, so I do think it’s a bit of an overpay. But there are factors that may overcome that. First, you’re to contend and flags fly forever. Second, in a 10-team league, I’m not sure St. Brown or the 1.08 carry as much weight. You need elite players in that format, and Adams still possesses the ability to be elite if everything goes well in Las Vegas. If I really thought this would put me over the hump, I would likely do it.

What do I think is even for Adams? In terms of picks, an early 2022 first and a 2023 second-round pick is very close. If St. Brown is one of the comps you want to use, I would say an early 2022 second would make that fair enough. Player for player, Austin Ekeler is the best comp if you wanted a running back. But again, these are all in a vacuum. For a true contender, I’d pay more than this, and for a true rebuilder, I’d let him go for slightly less.

Second-year breakouts

The first question is currently easier than the second. I’m not certain it will remain that way after the NFL Draft.

As of now, Rondale Moore has a much easier path to a breakout than Marshall. He has an NFL-quality starting quarterback, for one thing. And the Cardinals have 195 vacated targets from the loss of Christian Kirk and AJ Green. I expect Moore to fill Kirk’s role with some additional responsibilities in the running game. He absolutely has top-25 upside this year if everything goes right. But I’ll feel better about that possibility if we can get through the first three rounds of the NFL Draft without the Cardinals adding a true No. 2 to go opposite DeAndre Hopkins.

As for whether Terrace Marshall has a chance, it doesn’t look like it right now. Because right now he has Sam Darnold throwing him the ball with DJ Moore, Christian McCaffrey, and Robby Anderson ahead of him for targets. But a lot could change in the next five months so I am doing my very best to hold Marshall through the first month of the coming season just in case.

Challengers to Jonathan Taylor’s throne

This may have been a redraft question, in which case I shouldn’t have answered it here… but the answers are McCaffrey and Derrick Henry. Throw in Ekeler as well. But even if one of those backs finishes No. 1 this year, they won’t claim the No. 1 spot in Dynasty because of their age.

In Dynasty, it’s not easy to find a true contender for the throne. The value difference between Taylor and my RB2 (Najee Harris) is the same as the difference between Harris and Alvin Kamara, my RB15 in Dynasty. In other words, it would take a lot to bridge that gap. Harris is probably the most likely, but Javonte Williams and D’Andre Swift are right behind him. Realistically, something bad is going to have to happen to Taylor for any of those guys to have a chance.

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