Blue Jays vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Taillon Helps Finish 2-Game Sweep

MLB odds, picks, and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees on May 11. MLB betting free picks for moneyline and Over/Under.

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We’ve got a packed slate with 15 games on the MLB betting board this Wednesday beginning with a marquee afternoon AL East clash between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.

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These clubs are near the top of the World Series futures odds board and the Yankees are installed as -134 home favorites for the second contest in this short two-game set. Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Yankees on May 11.

Blue Jays vs Yankees odds

The lookahead for this line was at Yankees -130 but has been sitting at near -145 since late last night. It’s since dipped back around -134 at some books, so shop around for the best price. The total hit the board at 7.5 and has remained steady as of 10 am ET.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Predictions

Picks made on 5/11/2022 at 9:45 am ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Blue Jays vs Yankees game info

Location: Yankee Stadium, New York City, NY
Date: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
first pitch: 12:35 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, YES

Blue Jays vs Yankees betting preview

starting pitchers

Jose Berrios (2-1, 5.34 ERA): Berrios had a career-best 1.04 WHIP last season but has majorly regressed this year with a 1.64 WHIP and an OBA of .301 through his first six starts. In his previous outing, he surrendered eight hits and six runs against the Guardians before getting the hook midway through the fifth inning.

Jameson Taillon (2-1, 2.84 ERA): Taillon has looked very sharp to begin the year and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his five starts. He has already made a pair of starts against the Blue Jays, limiting them to three runs through 11 innings.

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The 30-year-old has walked just two batters in 25 1-3 innings this season and looks fully recovered from a pair of Tommy John surgeries and a battle with cancer that hindered him in recent years.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Blue Jays: Cavan Biggio 2B (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out).

Yankees: Joey Gallo OF (Questionable).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Yankees are 10-1 in their last 11 games versus a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. yankees

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

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Money line analysis

Aaron Judge hit a three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth inning last night to give the Yankees a crushing 6-5 victory over the Blue Jays. The Yankees now have 14 wins in their last 16 games and improved their record to an MLB-best 21-8. The Jays drop to 17-14 but still remain fourth on the World Series odds board just one spot behind the Bronx Bombers.

Batting numbers are down across the majors but the Yankees are still hitting the ball well — at least relatively speaking. The heart of the Yankees order — Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Anthony Rizzo — has been mashing and New York ranks fourth in the bigs with an OPS of .724.

The Blue Jays led the majors with an OPS of .796 last season but despite strong starts from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer, they have an OPS of just .693 as a team this year.

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Toronto will be starting Jose Berrios tonight. Berrios had a strong 2021 campaign with a 3.52 ERA in 32 starts but his expected ERA was a bit higher at 4.09. He has been very shaky this season, posting a 5.34 ERA with a 7.71 xERA in six starts, including a clash against the Yankees last month where he surrendered a pair of dingers and three runs in five innings.

Berrios has historically struggled at Yankee Stadium, recording a 6.16 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in four career starts at the ballpark.

The Yankees will respond with Jameson Taillon, who is finally healthy and enjoying a breakout season with a 2.84 ERA in five starts. The second overall selection in the loaded 2010 MLB draft has sharply reduced his walk rate and has done a fantastic job at inducing weak contact. Taillon pitched against the Jays last week, scattering five hits across six innings of one-run ball.

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The Yankees also have a fantastic bullpen behind him with their relievers owning an MLB-best 2.38 ERA. The Jays bullpen has been far less reliable, posting a collective ERA of 4.32.

Once the Jays hit their stride, the lineup should be able to hang with anyone, but right now that’s not the case. The Yankees also have the better pitching in this matchup, both in terms of their starter and the arms they can bring out of the bullpen. Take the home side at a reasonable -134 price.

prediction: Yankees ML (-134 at FanDuel)

Covers MLB betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

Blame it on a shorter spring training, cool weather, slightly altered baseballs, or humidors, but scoring has been down across the majors.

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These teams combined for 11 runs last night but scored five of those in the final two innings. They also combined for just 12 hits and really benefited from getting on base through walks.

Before last night’s contest, the Yankees had totaled just six runs in their previous four games. The Jays’ offensive troubles go back even further with Toronto plating just 3.23 runs per game in its last 12.

Add in a brisk 12 mph wind blowing in from centerfield today and we’re going against the line movement and backing the Under.

prediction: Under 7.5 (-115 at Betway)

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Like we said, the Jays are capable of being a World Series contender but they’ve been ice-cold at the plate and have gone just 2-6 in their last eight games. They’ve also been very reliant on stud starters like Alex Manoah and Kevin Gausman to eke out wins.

Given that the Yankees are the hottest team in baseball and have the edge in most areas of this matchup, being able to take them in the range of -134 at home is an absolute bargain.

Pick: Yankees ML (-134 at FanDuel)

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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