Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets for Suns vs. Mavericks Showdown on May 12

Homecourt has prevailed in the series between the phoenix suns and Dallas Mavericks. With the Suns up 3-2, the series goes back to Dallas for Game 6. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Suns favored by two points, with the total at 207.

Let’s go over the fantasy outlook for the game for Showdown contests on DraftKings.


Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (PHX vs. DAL)


Captain’s Picks

Luka Doncic ($20,400) – Doncic is the highest-priced player by a whopping $4,500 over the next player. The salary has increased every game this series and finally eclipsed the $20K barrier. Decisions will have to be made and it will come down to roster construction and projected ownership, because while he went for 75 DKFP in Game 1, Doncic has been in the 50-DKFP range in the last four games. The floor is high and a triple-double, ceiling game is always in play. That said, he’s extremely expensive and the probabilities of him hurting you are muted.

Devin Booker ($15,900) – I’ve been going with ChrisPaul ($14,700) the last two games, expecting a bounce back, but Booker is getting most of the usage and handling the ball while Paul puts his hands on his knees in the corner. The usage rate has been 33.7% and 30.7% in the last two games for Booker, after being in the mid to high 20% range in the first three games. He’s scored 28 and 35 points on 20 and 22 field goal attempts. He’s also chipped in some rebounds and assists.

FLEX Plays

Jalen Brunson ($7,800) – Brunson has scored 28, 18 and 21 points over the last three games while attempting 17, 17 and 21 shots. That’s translated to 42.5, 28.5 and 32.75 DKFP. He’s the Robin to Luka’s Batman and has been delivering. His ability to get into the paint off the dribble while being able to post up Paul has been huge this series. He’s garnered a usage rate of at least 25% in every game with two above 30.

Value

Davis Bertans ($2,200) – Bertans is a 3-and-nothing else player. That said, he’s an excellent shooter from downtown and has been getting his opportunities from him. He’s attempted four, six and seven three-pointers. Now, I have played 19 minutes in two games, which happened to be blowouts. In the other three, he only played 13, seven and eight. It’s well within the range of outcomes that he plays in the single digits but there is also upside since he can get hot and make it rain from beyond the arc.

Fades

Chris Paul ($9,800) – I expected Paul to bounce back in Game 5 after being in foul trouble during Game 4. The usage rate was 15.5%, though, and he was often hanging out in the corner watching Booker navigate pick-and-roll action. While he finally racked up double-digit assists for the first time this series, he’s just not involved as much. It’s been mentioned quite often that the Mavericks going at him on defense may be wearing him out. Paul has attempted fewer than 10 shots in the last three games and has failed to exceed 26 DKFP.

Maxi Kleber ($6,600) – I’ve liked Kleber for much of this series because of his ability to stretch the floor. The Suns increased the three-point prowess to centers by 27.52% above the league average. Kleber has made at least one three-pointer in all but one game with a high of five. I have scored 24.75, 18.25, 30.75, 21.25 and 11 DKFP. When the series started, he was $4,000. Now he is $2,600 more expensive. I liked him at $4,000. Not so much at $6,600 as he’s priced for his ceiling outcome.

The Outcome

The Suns have shot 50.5%, 64.5% and 49.4% in the three games at home. In Dallas, that plummeted to 44.7% and 46.4%. Home court has held serve this series and I expect the Mavs to bounce back from the 30-point drubbing in Game 5. Their defense has been stifling at home and they have Luka Doncic. Game 7 here we come!

Final score: Mavericks 104, Suns 101

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (PHX vs. DAL)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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